Syria. 70,000+ dead. 60,000+ missing. 200,000 Detained. 740,000+ Refugees. In less than 2 years, the World has stood by and watched as Syria descends into war and chaos, with each passing day a further stain upon humanity. Desensitised citizens watch on the news and gawp at the occasional media reports, whilst world leaders sporadically discuss potential plans to make a plan to discuss a plan to stop the crisis. Be it the Russians and the Chinese, or US and the West, the World is failing Syria, just as the world failed Rwanda, just as the world failed Bosnia, and just as the world failed the Tamils in Sri Lanka.
In the early days of the Syrian Revolution, the West was nowhere to be found. Given the willingness with which the West would deal with the Assad Regime (see collaboration in the War on Terror http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/02/05/extraordinary-rendition-axis-of-evil-iran-syria-cia_n_2621401.html) the West had no real problems with allowing the Assad Regime to continue ruling Syria. After all, Assad had proved to be a stable presence and a leader willing to allow Israel to continue illegally occupy the Syrian Golan Heights. In short, “better the devil you know”.
As a result, the West’s policy towards the Syrian Revolution has been mixed and ineffectual. Their desire for a stable Syria, even at the cost of having a dictator kill 70,000+, as well as the desire to stop the spread of ‘radical al qaeda linked groups’ such as Jabhat al Nusra has led to what can best be described as a policy of containment. Instead of moving to strengthen the more moderate groups in the Syrian opposition, the policy of containment has allowed the more radical groups to become the most significant fighting opposition to Assad. Groups such as Jabhat al Nusra have been praised for the way they have brought order to rebel-controlled areas (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/9857846/Syria-how-jihadist-group-Jabhat-al-Nusra-is-taking-over-Syrias-revolution.html) and as such have become a far more powerful force than the West wants, as a direct failure of Western policy.
Consequently, this is only moving to strengthen the credibility of Assad. Assad and his Regime have long claimed to be fighting ‘ al qaeda terrorists, and criminal gangs’. The tactics of radical groups like Jabhat al Nusra such as suicide bombings which have targeted civilians in Damascus are a publicity boost for Assad who can quite easily spin this into being a vindication of his brutal tactics, whilst further damaging the potential of support from Western Civillians who, after years of media-induced fear of “Jihadi’s and Islamic Extremism taking over the world”, will see Assad as taking part in the fight against this.
In response to this, heavy weapons have in the past few weeks, began to reach the more moderate groups fighting Assad in the South of the country, (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/in-syria-new-influx-of-weapons-to-rebels-tilts-the-battle-against-assad/2013/02/23/a6bf2bc0-7dfb-11e2-9073-e9dda4ac6a66_story.html) but again, this policy is papering over the cracks, and is unlikely to make a lasting positive impact for the Syria people. Whilst in the short term this may help in the fight against Assad’s forces, in the long term it heightens the prospects of in-fighting between the radicals and the moderates, using foreign funded weapons, particuraly in a post-Assad power vacuum.
Instead, I’d argue that, given the substantial mistakes that the West has made in the past, and continues to make on a daily basis, the West should focus on increasing diplomatic efforts in preparation for a transition of power. This could be done by increasing the pressure on Assad’s inner circle,diplomatically, economically, and militarily in an effort the force the conflict towards an end. Whilst doing this, the West should seek to strengthen and help the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces in which ever way it needs help, so as when the time comes, and the Assad Regime falls, there is an interim structure ready to take control with a framework for elections and a brighter future for the Syria people. Without concrete steps now, Syria will descend into further anarchy and suffering without any light at the end of the tunnel, but a bloodier and bloodier Civil War, which will have a lasting and disastrous impact on Syria, the Middle East, and humanity as a whole.
Harry Shotton (Feb 24th 2013)
The views expressed in this article are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the positions of Leeds Friends of Syria
